Daytona 500 Predictions

I'm not big on predictions, because, well, generally, I'm not great at it. However, with a new season, I thought I'd give a shot at picking Daytona 500 winner and up the odds by choosing a new contenders.

1. Kurt Busch - Kurt runs well at both Talladega and Daytona. He regularly runs in the top 10 and has an average finish at Daytona of 17. The question is whether the Penske camp has made changes that will help Busch run more consistently. More importantly: How is Dodge helping (if at all) . If he can avoid a wreck, he may be able to pull it off. On the flip side, Busch's temper and impatience could get the best of him. And if things don't go well this year, I predict there could be a new driver in the Penske #2.

2. Tony Stewart - Stewart is a master at the plate tracks. This does not always translate to a win. If he doesn't win at Daytona soon, that monkey will have jumped off Dale Earnhardt's back onto Stewart's. Don't despair, Tony will comfort himself with his two Brickyard trophies. (It makes him crabby to mention the loses at THE 500 - Indianapolis, so don't. No _really_, don't).

3. Greg Biffle - Biffle's teammate Matt Kenseth won last year, and the Fords have really made strides at the plate tracks. Biffle has won at Daytona during the July race, so he knows how to run and win at Daytona. Biffle needs to pull off a win to keep his boss happy.

4. Pick a first time Daytona 500 winner. Face it; anything goes at a plate track. Sometimes being a strong contender at plate tracks works against you, as drivers look to help some (sucker) they think they can ultimately get around. This means someone like Juan Pablo Montoya, AJ Allmendinger, Reagan Smith, or Brad Keselowski.

5. Worse case scenario, pick a Chevy. They have won five of the last seven Daytona 500. For an even better shot, pick one owned or helped by Rick Hendrick. I.e. 5, 88, 24, 48, 14, 39.

California Proves It Knows Chasers Early in Season

Back in February, I posted a blog about a theory that Dustin Long, a nascar beat writer for Southern newspapers, proposed.  Basically, Long pointed out that for the past four years, on average, seven of the top ten finishers at California advance to the Chase.

How did California do this year? Well the track got 8 of the 12 correct.  Here is the Top Ten list from this year's 1st race at Fontana, California (I still can't bear to call it by its sponsored name).

1.  Matt Kenseth

2.  Jeff Gordon

3.  Kyle Busch

4.  Greg Biffle

5.  Kurt Busch

6.  Denny Hamlin

7.  Carl Edwards

8.  Tony Stewart

9.  Jimmie Johnson

10. Brian Vickers

Third Busch Brother "Discovered"

Originally Posted on April 20, 2009 on foxsports.com.

(CHARLOTTE, NC)  Jamie McMurray surprised Nascar insiders today by going  to extreme measures to stay at Roush Fenway Racing.  McMurray announced that he had been adopted by Tom and Gaye Busch and was now to be known as Jamie McMurray-Busch, the third Busch brother.
"I've always wanted two brothers, and you really couldn't pick any better ones than Kurt and Kyle," said McMurray at his press conference.  "Nascar is a family sport.  I'm just expanding the family a little."

"I'm thrilled to have three such accomplished sons," said Gaye Busch.  "Jamie has been like one of the family for a long time now.  Why, he even gave me my Mother's Day gift early - a new Roush Mustang.  Kurt never got me one when he was at Roush!"

"Are you F@$#&n' kidding me?" remarked Kurt Busch when he was told the news.  "One little brother is f*$#@$n' enough!"

"Well, if Kurt is Buschie, and I'm Shrub, does that mean that Jamie is Bonsai?" Kyle smirked.  "Or will he keep "cupcake"?"

"I guess desperate times call for desperate measures," remarked a Roush Fenway employee, who refused to be named.   "Jamie's souvenir sales are down.  He hopes to spark either a Busch backlash or to hop on the Kyle Fan-Bandwagon.  Kyle's numbers have been going up every week, especially when he and Dale Jr. tussle."

"He's really worried that Jack will cut him," said a Kenseth crew member.  "He's the odd man out.  Matt's the Champ.  Biffle's gotten two championships for Jack; Carl's a sponsorship dream and contender.  That leaves David or Jamie. David's been running better for the past year."

McMurray, though, denied he was motivated by the upcoming Roush Fenway team cut.  "I'm not worried about Jack cutting me.  I'm a valuable part of the team.  And now, I'm part of the Busch dynasty.  I got this job because of Kurt's abrupt departure from Roush.  Kyle started in Nascar driving for Jack's truck team.  Jack loves having a Busch on the payroll."

When reached for comment, Jack Roush was blunt, as usual.  "Did the adoption give him an attitude too?" snarked Roush.  "If it did, he'll be driving for Yates by the end of the week."

What happened to the Young Guns?

Take a quick look at the top four in Nascar Sprint Cup Standings:

1.  Tony Stewart

2.  Jeff Gordon

3.  Jimmie Johnson

4.  Kurt Busch

What do they all have in common?  

They are former Champions.

They all are in their 30's.

They have all been in the series for several years.

So where is all the young talent?  The rookie class is not fairing well.  Joey Logano is back in 21st place, while Scott Speed is stuck in 35th and Max Papis is in 42nd.  And in fact, I would not call either Speed or Papis a young gun - both have racing success in other series before jumping to Nascar.

Kyle Busch is relatively young, but his tenure in Cup has been so long it doesn't feel right calling him a young gun.  Kasey Kahne has been around several years as has Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, and Brian Vickers.  Brad Kesolowski may be the one bright spot on the horizon, but where is a seat for him to take over?

So where are all the up and comers who are supposed to be the next hot thing?  Is the Buschwacking phenomenon finally showing the Nascar nearsightedness?  Or are the old hats just hanging on better to their rides?