It's Dirt Track Season!

With Easter in the rear view mirror, the dirt tracks in Iowa are in full swing. This week marks the first points race of the season at many Iowa tracks, with the exception of Knoxville, which opens May 1.

So before spring blends into summer, start planning your trip to the dirt track. Need ideas? Here are a few events I wouldn't miss:

Memorial Day Weekend - pick any track, there is usually a special event that weekend

June 5 - National Sprint Car Hall of Fame Induction Weekend at Knoxville Raceway

July 4th - again, most tracks have a special (with fireworks on and off the track)

August 14th - 50th Knoxville Nationals

September 6-11 - IMCA Supernationals - Boone Speedway

Carl vs. Brad: As the Wheel Turns

By now, the majority of the American public has heard about the dust-up between Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski. In fact, I heard about it again this morning on a radio station that has Never played a Nascar report. The host's clear unfamiliarity was apparent to anyone who had ever watched a race.

But, the fact that this station was discussing Nascar was significant. If Nascar's no-holds barred approach was designed to get finishes and races that the general public would talk about, it worked. Brilliantly.

Does anyone doubt that next week a few more eyeballs will be on the TV as the series heads to Bristol? Hopefully, Keselowski and Edwards will be pitted near each other and will have to ride in the same truck for introductions. That would be Nascar's dream scenario.

So, what should Nascar do to Edwards for deliberately dumping Keselowski?

First, I think there are two villains in this situation. Both Edwards and Keselowski were wrong. Keselowski has been a repeat aggressive driver in both the Cup series and the Nationwide series, including prior to the Atlanta race. He reaped what he sowed.

Edwards is also a repeat offender. His passive aggressive possibly-roid rage has involved several Cup drivers. It's time to crack down on his behavior.

So, what to do. First, Keselowski should be put on probation. Let him know if there are any further aggressive driving incidents, he will be "parked." Second, give him to Mark Martin as a student. Make him spend time learning how to be a gentleman driver from the best.

Edwards should be "parked" for six races. However, I would modify the traditional method to this: After missing completely the first race, Edwards would start the next five races and at the first pit stop, would be pulled out of the car. That way, Edwards gets the points, but doesn't actually race. The other driver would also qualify the car, so Edwards would start at the back of the pack for each race.

Otherwise, I would suggest Nascar let these two settle it the old fashioned way - jello pool on the front stretch of Charlotte. Tickets would cost extra, and imagine the TV rights...

Vegas Odds & Ends

Weird Happenings: Daytona had potholes; Vegas now has phantom caution lights. First, the lights did not go out when the race was ready to restart, then the lights came on without a caution being thrown by Nascar. What's up next week? Floods? Deer jumping the fence? The Pace Car stalling out on the track? More potholes?

Pit Row Shenanigans: Did Jeff Gordon's crew start gassing before the car was in the box? Was Nascar correct in ruling he did? Let the conspiracy theories begin...

Inter-company feuds: Jamie McMurray crashed into his new teammate Juan Pablo Montoya. Apparently McMurray didn't get the memo that JPM will carry a grudge. Montoya voiced his displeasure about the incident to the media immediately after it happened. Love to by a fly on the wall tomorrow at Earnhardt-Ganassi.

Don't drink the water: Do you think Dale Jr is worried about Danica in the garage? As a married woman, she shouldn't drink the water as a rash of pregnancies is going around. At this point in her career, a nine-month hiatus would likely be detrimental.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is back to his winning ways. He usually does well at the beginning and the end of the year. Who is going to step up and challenge him?

Daytona 500 Predictions

I'm not big on predictions, because, well, generally, I'm not great at it. However, with a new season, I thought I'd give a shot at picking Daytona 500 winner and up the odds by choosing a new contenders.

1. Kurt Busch - Kurt runs well at both Talladega and Daytona. He regularly runs in the top 10 and has an average finish at Daytona of 17. The question is whether the Penske camp has made changes that will help Busch run more consistently. More importantly: How is Dodge helping (if at all) . If he can avoid a wreck, he may be able to pull it off. On the flip side, Busch's temper and impatience could get the best of him. And if things don't go well this year, I predict there could be a new driver in the Penske #2.

2. Tony Stewart - Stewart is a master at the plate tracks. This does not always translate to a win. If he doesn't win at Daytona soon, that monkey will have jumped off Dale Earnhardt's back onto Stewart's. Don't despair, Tony will comfort himself with his two Brickyard trophies. (It makes him crabby to mention the loses at THE 500 - Indianapolis, so don't. No _really_, don't).

3. Greg Biffle - Biffle's teammate Matt Kenseth won last year, and the Fords have really made strides at the plate tracks. Biffle has won at Daytona during the July race, so he knows how to run and win at Daytona. Biffle needs to pull off a win to keep his boss happy.

4. Pick a first time Daytona 500 winner. Face it; anything goes at a plate track. Sometimes being a strong contender at plate tracks works against you, as drivers look to help some (sucker) they think they can ultimately get around. This means someone like Juan Pablo Montoya, AJ Allmendinger, Reagan Smith, or Brad Keselowski.

5. Worse case scenario, pick a Chevy. They have won five of the last seven Daytona 500. For an even better shot, pick one owned or helped by Rick Hendrick. I.e. 5, 88, 24, 48, 14, 39.

A Welcome Change

New signage has been put up at Bruton Smith's track in Charlotte. Lowe's will no longer pay to have its name on the track, thus the track has reverted to "Charlotte Motor Speedway."

When Lowe's purchased the name several years ago, I hated the idea. It isn't that I dislike Lowe's, I dislike all corporate names on sporting stadiums or tracks.

Why? Well, there are several reasons.

One reason is that Nascar tends to rename every event from the inception of the sport with the corporate name. All Champions are now Sprint Cup Champions, even if they never raced under the Sprint sponsorship. Granted there is difficulty in referring to a name that no longer exists or that has evolved over the years, but the way to fix this is to keep the same name for the long term.

After the sponsorship is over, the public has to learn a new name for the event or venue. Why not just name it permanently and leave it alone. If venues are named after local heros or after people who contribute to have it built, great. But the name should not change with every market crash or upswing.

In any event, I am delighted to welcome back Charlotte Motor Speedway, which is exactly what I've tried to call it during its brief turn as "Lowe's." Curtis Turner must be smiling.

Things to Watch in the New Season

We're almost one month from the Daytona 500, so it is time to look at what the 2010 season could bring.

Sponsorship - With the down turn in the economy, funds for advertising and sponsorship has dried up. The true test will be this year. Will Nascar have trouble finding race sponsors? Will mid-pack teams have sponsorship? What about back of the packers? Without adequate sponsorship, Nascar may be facing smaller fields by the end of the year - which already struck the Truck series and the Nationwide series. Teams can't scrape by without sponsorship for long. Look for Cup teams to have similar problems. Maybe we're entering the era where drivers have multiple sponsors and no primary sponsor.

Race Attendance - Face it, attending a race is expensive. The only time hotels charge the amount listed on the back of the room door is during a Nascar weekend. Couple it with the now typically high gas prices during the spring and summer, unemployment, and the trend of staycations, race attendance could fall. Again. The end of the 2009 season featured empty stands in nearly every TV shot. Look for it to continue unless prices go down for tickets, hotels, airfare etc.

TV Viewership - As race attendance fell, TV viewership fell too. If Nascar TV viewing continues to trend downward, Nascar will lose the ability to draw advertisers and potentially lose out when the next TV contract comes up for bid. The new car may be safer, but people don't like watching it.

Schedule Re-alignment - Nascar needs to fix the schedule. Do we need two Poconos? Two Californias? Should the Chase races be the same every year? I recommend a hard look at the races, when they are held (seasonally), and attendance. Why not rotate the schedule - odd years Pocono has 2 races while Cali has 1, even years Cali has 2 while Pocono has 1? My other recommendation is to add a road course to the Chase.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Will Junior win or even contend for a win in 2010? Like him or not, Junior is the most popular driver, and as his season goes, so goes Nascar's popularity (to some degree). If Junior can make a comeback, it will fuel both the lovers and the haters. Nascar needs him to do well.

Jimmie Johnson -Johnson's 2010 could be interesting as he will become a father sometime in 2010. Jeff Gordon's perspective changed with the birth of his daughter, and I expect Johnson's view will change too - Baby will need a ring too! Johnson needs a serious rival - and Nascar needs the rivalry. Without anyone to challenge him, non-fans yawn and turn the channel.

Jeff Gordon - Each year, I wonder how many more years Gordon is going to race. His much publicized back problems and his apparently serene home life are taking a toll on his fierce competitive spirit. If he'd win the 5th championship, I think we'd be seeing the last of Jeff Gordon.

Tony Stewart - Can he repeat with another good season? Or will he hit a sophomore slump in ownership?

Juan Pablo Montoya - Montoya has made a few more friends in the Nascar garage than in the Formula One garage (due to the different cultures more than anything else). But, he is still an aggressive driver who ticks people off. Will this lead to on-track problems this year? Or will he continue to get a pass? Will Earnhardt Ganassi be able to support him? Or will Montoya be looking to leave? Will Ganassi try to leave?

Kasey Kahne - Will Kahne stay with Richard Petty or will he bolt at the end of his contract? Kahne made a lot of stinging comments last year about the team. He's always admitted to admiring Tony Stewart. And remember that contract battle with Ford when he left to go to Dodge? I doubt Kahne has forgotten it.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick and Richard Childress have admitted that things haven't gone well with Harvick's team. The question is whether Childress can appease Harvick enough to keep him in the fold.

Doubtless, there will be other issues that pop up during the year (the rear spoiler, no double line at Daytona/Talladega etc), but these should be enough to keep in mind for the first half of the year.

My Thoughts on Why Nascar TV Viewership is Down

Nascar race TV viewership is down for the whole year. A brief review of Nascar history shows that the Chase was created to generate more TV viewership, more at track attendance and to generate excitement for the sport. Brian France instituted the Chase after Matt Kenseth won the Championship with a runaway points lead.

This year it does not appear to be working. In theory, home viewership should be up: with the economy the way it is, at track attendance should be down as more people stay home to watch the races.

So why are the numbers falling? There are several reasons, some which Nascar cannot fix, but others that could be tweaked to gain back viewers.

Things Nascar Can Fix:

1. Overhype of the Chase. Starting with the Daytona 500, all we hear about is the Chase. The NFL does not hype the Super Bowl this way throughout the year, MLB doesn't hype the World Series this way, and neither should Nascar. We all know it is coming. And we all know that it is too early to talk about in the first couple races. Knock it off. In fact, it should not be hyped until we are within 3 races of the Chase's start, and then only sparingly. Save the PR until we have a field set.

2. Overhype during the Chase. Watching the first race in the Chase, the announcers act like every lap is vitally important in the Chase. "If Gordon doesn't pass Stewart soon, he'll drop all the way to third in the Chase." And it's lap #3! When something catastrophic happens, then let us know how it impacts the Chase.

3. Ignoring Non-Chase drivers. While the drivers having the best year are in the Chase and are likely to be up front, there still are 30 other guys out there. Talk about them, and not just when they (nearly) crash into a Chaser.

4. Tweak the Rules to get into the Chase. I'm fine with an arbitrary number of drivers, but let's look at the line. Change the rule to top 12 plus any race winning drivers within 100 points of #12. Some years this may be no one, and others it may be a couple guys. But if a team pulled it together enough to be within 100 points of the top 12 AND won a race, let them in.

5. Uniform Start times: I applaud Nascar for deciding on uniform start times. I think they may actually listen to the fans once in a while.

6. Fix the schedule: We have too many races. Trim a few by adding a rotation of tracks - instead of 2 races per year, Track #1 gets one race plus one race in odd years. Track #2 gets the other race in even numbered years. The Chase races should include a bigger variety of tracks. Why not Sonoma? Bristol? Richmond?

Things Nascar Can't Fix:

1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s past few seasons have not gone well. Despite the high hopes after his signing at Hendrick Motorsports, Dale Jr. has failed to deliver consistent finishes and wins. That hurts viewership when your most popular driver isn't in the Championship. Do you think Michael Jordan would have been as legendary if he had never played in the Championship games? The same applies here.

2. Jimmie Johnson's domination. Johnson has schooled the field each of the past three years. Before that, he was in contention up until the last race. Frankly, many long time fans I know are bored with the Chase because they expect Johnson to win it all. They are not excited about the Chase. Maybe when Johnson retires they will be back.

3. Football: Probably the biggest thief of viewers is football. College and NFL games lure away marginal & dedicated fans.

Nascar needs to look at its product and make a few changes. Otherwise, the decline of viewers will lead to a decrease in revenue as the TV package will not be worth as much as it did a few years ago.

California Proves It Knows Chasers Early in Season

Back in February, I posted a blog about a theory that Dustin Long, a nascar beat writer for Southern newspapers, proposed.  Basically, Long pointed out that for the past four years, on average, seven of the top ten finishers at California advance to the Chase.

How did California do this year? Well the track got 8 of the 12 correct.  Here is the Top Ten list from this year's 1st race at Fontana, California (I still can't bear to call it by its sponsored name).

1.  Matt Kenseth

2.  Jeff Gordon

3.  Kyle Busch

4.  Greg Biffle

5.  Kurt Busch

6.  Denny Hamlin

7.  Carl Edwards

8.  Tony Stewart

9.  Jimmie Johnson

10. Brian Vickers

Knoxville Nationals

Last week began the annual dirt track orgy in Iowa.  Knoxville Raceway was host to the three day Knoxville 360 Nationals, followed by a USAC Silver Crown Non-Wing Nationals on Sunday.

If four days wasn't enough, tonight was the Front Row Challenge in Oskaloosa, Iowa for winged sprint cars.  Rumor has it Kasey Kahne was going to Osky immediately following his run at the Glen.

Tomorrow night, Osky runs non-wing sprint cars.  Then the Granddaddy of them all starts on Wednesday at Knoxville as qualifying runs, heats and features start.

The Knoxville Nationals culminate with the A Main broadcast on SPEED on Saturday night.  But before that, there are lots of great drivers to be seen, races to be run, and homemade pie to eat. (Thank God the Rotary has the pie tent back this year!  I think I'll gain about 10 pounds thinking of it.).

What drivers will be around, you ask? Kasey Kahne hangs around Knoxville until he has to go to Michigan.  Tony Stewart can be spotted frequently too.  Mario Andretti will be at the Hall of Fame tomorrow (he was inducted in 1996).  Doug Wolfgang usually appears, as does Shane Carson, and Sammy Swindell (he will be running this year).   Erin Crocker is running the Nationals, as is Steve Kinser, Donny Schatz, Joey Saldana, Terry McCarl, Danny Lasoski and many other WoO drivers.  USAC regular Daron Clayton, California ace Tim Kaeding, Tyler Walker and several members of the Pennsylvania Posse:  Lucas Wolfe, Ed Lynch Jr,  Fast Freddy Rahmer, and Cody Darrah will all be at Knoxville this week.

Sponsorship Deals We're Unlikely to See Anytime Soon

The economy is tough right now and teams are scrambling to line up sponsorship for next year. Roush Fenway Racing announced that DeWalt would be leaving Matt Kenseth's #17, but Crown Royal will shift from the #26 to the #17.  However, with even more changes looming in the future, these are a few sponsorship deals I think we're unlikely to see.

Elliott Sadler &  PETA.  Sadler is an avid hunter, and I doubt he will give up his winter pastime so easily.  Equally unlikely is Ryan Newman - PETA, as he is an avid fisherman.

Kyle Busch & Self Tanning Lotion.  Kyle is nearly so fair that he is translucent.  As a hard-core sunscreen wearer myself, I sympathize.  But Kyle's complexion will not lend itself well to self-tanning.

Jimmie Johnson/Tony Stewart & Gillette.  Jimmie recently shaved his stubble, igniting news coverage.   Whether he remains clean-shaven the rest of the year remains to be seen.  Stewart has demonstrated his shaving laziness during his whole career. Can you imagine how long the the PR flack assigned to tell Smoke to shave everyday would live?

Jeff Gordon & Budweiser.  Somehow Gordon's suave aura doesn't bring to mind the partying ways of Budweiser.  Red Wine? Sure.  But Bud?!?

Kasey Kahne & A Dance School.  Commercial to the contrary, I doubt Kasey will be endorsed for his dancing skills. 

Greg Biffle & Whiffle Ball.  Although the slogan is catchy, I don't see "Biffle Whiffle" catching on.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. & Ford.  Junior's father would come back and spank him.  Although Senior may prefer it to Toyota/Honda/Hyundai...

Roush Fenway Racing & Toyota.  A sure sign of the end of the world.