Sunday, September 13, 2009

California Proves It Knows Chasers Early in Season

Back in February, I posted a blog about a theory that Dustin Long, a nascar beat writer for Southern newspapers, proposed.  Basically, Long pointed out that for the past four years, on average, seven of the top ten finishers at California advance to the Chase.

How did California do this year? Well the track got 8 of the 12 correct.  Here is the Top Ten list from this year's 1st race at Fontana, California (I still can't bear to call it by its sponsored name).

1.  Matt Kenseth

2.  Jeff Gordon

3.  Kyle Busch

4.  Greg Biffle

5.  Kurt Busch

6.  Denny Hamlin

7.  Carl Edwards

8.  Tony Stewart

9.  Jimmie Johnson

10. Brian Vickers


Anonymous said...

Poor Matt. Kyle needed to make the chase to make it interesting.

How's your hot glue gun burns?

photogr said...

Then we hae Mark Martin and Ryan Newman added to the equation now. Who would have thought.

gonger93 said...

This theory is really interesting. I guess it works out because Fontana is so predictable of a track. The same guys just take turns winning.

Glad to find you on here! Haven't gotten to read any of your stuff since fauxsports...

Iowa-Girl said...

Belle - I think Kyle will make it MORE interesting by being out. He'll be out to prove the Chase is an arbitrary thing.

Iowa-Girl said...

Photo - They are an interesting addition. I think Mark will be the sentimental favorite. How odd is it that SHR has two teams in when this is their first year in existence (I'm ignoring the Haas racing days).

Gonger - Good to see you too! I wonder if it doesn't work since those drivers have a strong start to the season and those points help carry you through a few bad races. I just find it fascinating that it works! But who would have predicted then that Matt Kenseth who won the 1st two races would not make the Chase?

jon_464 said...

This year it was eight of the top 10 that made it. Fontana seems like eons ago now, especially to Kenseth.

klvalus said...

Hey Iowa! Hope you have been enjoying the dirt races...

It is a good theory - perhaps b/c if you run well at Fontana you are likely to run well at the majority of the flat 1.5 milers?

Regardless, the top 10 doesn't seem to change much from the first 5 races of the year.

Iowa-Girl said...

Jon - I'm sure Kenseth can console himself with the Daytona 500 win! And the new baby.

Klv - I have been enjoying the dirt races. Only a few left this season.

I think you have it right that the other tracks are similar. Maybe it also shows that your team has jelled and knows what it is doing? I know some teams, like Kenseth's, fall off at the end of the pre-chase season.

Dustin Long said...

Thanks for the shout out. I hadn't gone back to check that stat yet. Thanks for pointing it out.

Iowa-Girl said...

Dustin - Thanks for stopping by - I found it was a fascinating stat when you first mentioned it back early in the season!