We're almost one month from the Daytona 500, so it is time to look at what the 2010 season could bring.
Sponsorship - With the down turn in the economy, funds for advertising and sponsorship has dried up. The true test will be this year. Will Nascar have trouble finding race sponsors? Will mid-pack teams have sponsorship? What about back of the packers? Without adequate sponsorship, Nascar may be facing smaller fields by the end of the year - which already struck the Truck series and the Nationwide series. Teams can't scrape by without sponsorship for long. Look for Cup teams to have similar problems. Maybe we're entering the era where drivers have multiple sponsors and no primary sponsor.
Race Attendance - Face it, attending a race is expensive. The only time hotels charge the amount listed on the back of the room door is during a Nascar weekend. Couple it with the now typically high gas prices during the spring and summer, unemployment, and the trend of staycations, race attendance could fall. Again. The end of the 2009 season featured empty stands in nearly every TV shot. Look for it to continue unless prices go down for tickets, hotels, airfare etc.
TV Viewership - As race attendance fell, TV viewership fell too. If Nascar TV viewing continues to trend downward, Nascar will lose the ability to draw advertisers and potentially lose out when the next TV contract comes up for bid. The new car may be safer, but people don't like watching it.
Schedule Re-alignment - Nascar needs to fix the schedule. Do we need two Poconos? Two Californias? Should the Chase races be the same every year? I recommend a hard look at the races, when they are held (seasonally), and attendance. Why not rotate the schedule - odd years Pocono has 2 races while Cali has 1, even years Cali has 2 while Pocono has 1? My other recommendation is to add a road course to the Chase.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Will Junior win or even contend for a win in 2010? Like him or not, Junior is the most popular driver, and as his season goes, so goes Nascar's popularity (to some degree). If Junior can make a comeback, it will fuel both the lovers and the haters. Nascar needs him to do well.
Jimmie Johnson -Johnson's 2010 could be interesting as he will become a father sometime in 2010. Jeff Gordon's perspective changed with the birth of his daughter, and I expect Johnson's view will change too - Baby will need a ring too! Johnson needs a serious rival - and Nascar needs the rivalry. Without anyone to challenge him, non-fans yawn and turn the channel.
Jeff Gordon - Each year, I wonder how many more years Gordon is going to race. His much publicized back problems and his apparently serene home life are taking a toll on his fierce competitive spirit. If he'd win the 5th championship, I think we'd be seeing the last of Jeff Gordon.
Tony Stewart - Can he repeat with another good season? Or will he hit a sophomore slump in ownership?
Juan Pablo Montoya - Montoya has made a few more friends in the Nascar garage than in the Formula One garage (due to the different cultures more than anything else). But, he is still an aggressive driver who ticks people off. Will this lead to on-track problems this year? Or will he continue to get a pass? Will Earnhardt Ganassi be able to support him? Or will Montoya be looking to leave? Will Ganassi try to leave?
Kasey Kahne - Will Kahne stay with Richard Petty or will he bolt at the end of his contract? Kahne made a lot of stinging comments last year about the team. He's always admitted to admiring Tony Stewart. And remember that contract battle with Ford when he left to go to Dodge? I doubt Kahne has forgotten it.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick and Richard Childress have admitted that things haven't gone well with Harvick's team. The question is whether Childress can appease Harvick enough to keep him in the fold.
Doubtless, there will be other issues that pop up during the year (the rear spoiler, no double line at Daytona/Talladega etc), but these should be enough to keep in mind for the first half of the year.
8 comments:
IOWA-GIRL
GREAT PREVIEW OF THE COMING SEASON, EXCELLENT WRITING GONNA HAVE TO ADD YOU TO MY REGULAR READING AGAIN.
GUNAQUAT
Thanks Gunny. I'm afraid I don't get to write as regularly as I'd like to, but hopefully I can change that this year!
Nice job, IG.... but leave the 'gloom and doom' to me. That's not your style. LOL
The Cup series will still have 43 starters every race. Too much money for the start and parkers not to show up and fill the field.
Cars are competitive in the Nationwide series on 1/4 of a Cup team's budget. I look for teams to accept less money from sponsors and cut back on frills.
OK if I put this on the Spinout page on FB?
Gene,
I agree the money is there now, but a lot of the purse comes from sponsorship dollars. If those disappear, it may become less attractive to teams!
You can put it on the spinout page.
Annette
Way to get us thinking Annette! Is it really time for previews? I am still not quite ready for racing to start up again...I hope to catch the passion soon so I too can blog more this year.
Agree with a lot of what you wrote. I think Kasey will bolt as soon as he is able. Dont see Montoya racing for anyone but Chip...JJ's baby wont affect him and I dont think Jeffy G will wait for a 5th champ - we are seeing some of his last days on track I think. As for Junebug - well he just has to be better than last year because he cant be much worse! =P
Another sponsorship snag could be with Dodge - they look good now but with only Penske representing them in NASCAR that seems to be an awfully easy cut to make...Penske would be thrown for a serious loop if they have to change manufacturers mid season.
KLV - It may be early, but I had time to do it! With Montoya, I'm not sure Chip may not bolt as soon as he is able. But maybe the team marriage with TE isn't so bad.
I agree Dodge could pull out. I'd guess Penske has a contingency plan in place - he's to smart not to see the writing on the wall.
Annette
Annette, excellent insights. I think this will be Jeff Gordon's last season in the #24. (My prediction to replace him is Brad Keselowski.) As for Harvick and RCR, a few wins by Happy and/or RCR early in the season will give the organization confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see Harvick stay at RCR in that event. But if Happy struggles from the get-go, look for him as the third SHR driver in the #4 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet. (SHR will buy out Morgan/McClure Motorsports and snag the #4.)
P.S. Are the west coast bloggers going to get together at Sonoma like last year? I hope so!
Jon - Thanks. Brad wouldn't be a bad pick, just so he and Hamlin stop bumper cars before Dupont picks up the tab! I agree that Harvick is in a wait and see position. He has some intertwined businesses with Childress, but if he stays in a Chevy, those would work out quickly.
I'd love to do another Sonoma, but I don't think I can make it this year. But then again, that is six months away!
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